NFL franchises use contextualized data to create competitive advantages. In order to realize an edge, teams need to employ the right data in the right way at the right time. This means distilling, interpreting and applying only the most influential data in a framework that accounts for personnel, opponents and evolving game situations. My goal is to be YOUR analytics department. I want to work for you by providing a peek into which numbers flag in my models as the most impactful … or the most misunderstood.
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As always, let me know if your eye test is picking up on something interesting, or if there’s a stat/trend you’d like me to take a deeper look at. You can hit me up on Twitter @CFrelund. As with any great analytics department, the more collaborative this is, the more value we can create.
We made it through our second expanded regular-season schedule, and once again, the full playoff field wasn’t set until the conclusion of the 272nd and final game.
This is the third postseason to feature 14 playoff participants — as opposed to the previous total of 12 — and in my analytical assessment of the tournament bracket, I have two big takeaways:
- In the AFC, team odds for making the Super Bowl and winning the Super Bowl are aligned, reflecting playoff seeding all the way down. But on the NFC side, Philadelphia is most likely to make it to Super Bowl Sunday, while San Francisco is most likely to lift the Lombardi Trophy.
- All six games on Wild Card Weekend are rematches from the regular season, and my models predict three upsets: Jaguars over Chargers; Giants over Vikings; and Buccaneers over Cowboys. Should the favorites win those games, the Eagles’ odds change the most, as they would switch from playing the Giants to the Cowboys (thus decreasing their odds of winning).
So, what else do my models project? Below you’ll find every playoff team’s chances of reaching — and winning — Super Bowl LVII at State Farm Stadium in Glendale, Arizona. And to provide some additional analytical context…